The official Roblox description supports the basic risk loop: buy a seed, plant it, let the tree grow, and harvest before lightning strikes. It does not publish a lightning timer or probability.
What the official description confirms
Lightning is part of the harvest loop, so deciding when to harvest is a visible part of play. The official description does not say that every crop, server, or weather state uses the same timing.
What public mutation reports add
The mutation reference includes two source-labelled mutations with lightning-related acquisition wording. The accessible editorial source does not make the exact condition clear, so this page does not convert those reports into a base lightning chance or a guaranteed method.
What remains unknown
- The probability of a lightning strike.
- The interval between possible strikes.
- How often each weather event occurs.
- Whether the strike behavior differs by seed.
Use the observed scenario calculator only after recording your own failed attempts and harvest result. It models those inputs; it does not predict the next strike.